In this calculator, you reach financial independence when your invested portfolio can support your annual spending at your chosen withdrawal rate. Divide annual spending by the withdrawal rate to find the target, then estimate how long your savings and monthly investments take to reach it. The result is an illustration, not a guaranteed retirement date.

How does my savings rate affect early retirement?

At the same after-tax income, saving a larger share both increases your investments and reduces your spending target if you keep that lifestyle in retirement. The country comparison uses this simplified assumption; national household savings rates are context, not personal recommendations.

What does the end-of-year table show?

Each row covers 12 months from today and shows starting investments, contributions, growth or loss, ending investments, and the annual withdrawal budget at your chosen rate. Spending covered is that budget divided by annual spending. The final row completes the year the target is reached, assuming contributions continue; it does not simulate retirement withdrawals.

What is a FIRE number?

It is the invested portfolio target implied by annual spending divided by an assumed withdrawal rate.

Why use a real return?

A real return is after inflation, so the projection and spending target remain in today’s purchasing power.

Is a 4% withdrawal rate guaranteed?

No. It is a planning assumption. Taxes, fees, time horizon, asset mix, and market sequence can materially change outcomes.

YOUR NEXT CHAPTER

When Can I Retire? FIRE Calculator

Estimate when your investments could cover your spending. Try your numbers, compare savings rates, and follow your path year by year.

Example inputs · session only

Start with your numbers. These are illustrative starting values. Enter your invested savings, future spending, and monthly contribution to build your own plan.

Your FIRE number$1,200,000Annual spending ÷ withdrawal rate

Estimated time to target29y 5mConstant-return illustration

Progress from your estimate8.3%

Self-reported savings · not a live balance

THE LONG VIEW

See the possibility.

Illustration

Your estimated timeline is unchanged.

Current draftComparison plan

Explore a what-if

All amounts are in today’s dollars. Assumes constant returns after inflation, monthly compounding, and end-of-month contributions that maintain their purchasing power. Excludes taxes, fees, and market volatility. This is a planning illustration, not a forecast or guarantee.

MAKE IT YOURS

The plan behind the number.

Values on this page are temporary and won’t transfer through sign-in. No account data is used.

A LITTLE WORLD PERSPECTIVE

Household savings around the world

Saving more can bring retirement closer in two ways: you invest more and need less to support your lifestyle. Explore a country’s savings rate or choose your own.

2024 household net saving · % of disposable income

Explore a savings rate 20.0%

29y 5m

Estimated time to this scenario’s target

Monthly investment: $1,000
Annual spending: $48,000
Portfolio target: $1,200,000

Holds an implied after-tax income of $60,000 a year fixed: your annual contributions plus retirement spending. Assumes spending today and in retirement is the same and all savings are invested. Applying changes both spending and contributions in your draft.

Selected countries, 2024 historical data. Net saving deducts depreciation; these national aggregates generally include households and nonprofit institutions serving them. Pension and accounting differences mean they are context, not personal targets or predicted retirement dates for those countries. Your implied rate uses the simplified budget above, not the OECD accounting definition. Source: OECD Economic Outlook 118, December 2025 · Annex Table 28.

YOUR PATH, YEAR BY YEAR

End-of-year portfolio breakdown

Follow your contributions, investment growth, and the spending your portfolio could support at your chosen withdrawal rate. All amounts are in today’s dollars.

The target is first reached in 29y 5m. The final row continues contributions and growth through the end of that year. Year 1 means the next 12 months. No retirement withdrawals are deducted.

Annual projection toward a $1,200,000 retirement target
End of year	Starting portfolio	Contributions	Growth / loss	Ending portfolio	Annual withdrawal budget	Spending covered
1	$100,000	$12,000	$5,273	$117,273	$4,691	9.8%
2	$117,273	$12,000	$6,136	$135,409	$5,416	11.3%
3	$135,409	$12,000	$7,043	$154,452	$6,178	12.9%
4	$154,452	$12,000	$7,995	$174,447	$6,978	14.5%
5	$174,447	$12,000	$8,995	$195,442	$7,818	16.3%
6	$195,442	$12,000	$10,045	$217,487	$8,699	18.1%
7	$217,487	$12,000	$11,147	$240,633	$9,625	20.1%
8	$240,633	$12,000	$12,304	$264,938	$10,598	22.1%
9	$264,938	$12,000	$13,519	$290,457	$11,618	24.2%
10	$290,457	$12,000	$14,795	$317,253	$12,690	26.4%
11	$317,253	$12,000	$16,135	$345,388	$13,816	28.8%
12	$345,388	$12,000	$17,542	$374,930	$14,997	31.2%
13	$374,930	$12,000	$19,019	$405,949	$16,238	33.8%
14	$405,949	$12,000	$20,570	$438,519	$17,541	36.5%
15	$438,519	$12,000	$22,199	$472,717	$18,909	39.4%
16	$472,717	$12,000	$23,908	$508,626	$20,345	42.4%
17	$508,626	$12,000	$25,704	$546,330	$21,853	45.5%
18	$546,330	$12,000	$27,589	$585,919	$23,437	48.8%
19	$585,919	$12,000	$29,569	$627,487	$25,099	52.3%
20	$627,487	$12,000	$31,647	$671,134	$26,845	55.9%
21	$671,134	$12,000	$33,829	$716,964	$28,679	59.7%
22	$716,964	$12,000	$36,121	$765,084	$30,603	63.8%
23	$765,084	$12,000	$38,527	$815,611	$32,624	68.0%
24	$815,611	$12,000	$41,053	$868,664	$34,747	72.4%
25	$868,664	$12,000	$43,706	$924,370	$36,975	77.0%
26	$924,370	$12,000	$46,491	$982,861	$39,314	81.9%
27	$982,861	$12,000	$49,416	$1,044,277	$41,771	87.0%
28	$1,044,277	$12,000	$52,486	$1,108,763	$44,351	92.4%
29	$1,108,763	$12,000	$55,711	$1,176,474	$47,059	98.0%
30 · Target reached	$1,176,474	$12,000	$59,096	$1,247,570	$49,903	104.0%

PLAN FOR UNCERTAINTY

Will your money go the distance?

2,000 simulated paths

Test your current draft through changing markets. Contributions stop at retirement; spending then comes from your portfolio.

Years until retirementYears in retirementAnnual volatility (%)Custom FIRE target ($, optional)

Funded every retirement year17.0%Of paths under these assumptions

Reached FIRE target at retirement6.8%Target: $1,200,000

Median ending balance$0In today’s dollars

Shading: 10th–90th percentiles · line: median · dashed line: retirement. Percentile lines are not individual paths.

Model assumptions & yearly results

Independent lognormal annual returns, calibrated to your real annual return and volatility. Contributions arrive at year-end; retirement spending is withdrawn at year-start in today’s dollars. The target measures readiness, not an automatic retirement trigger. Fixed random seed permits consistent comparisons. Excludes taxes, fees, pensions, changing spending and extreme events beyond this model. Model probabilities are illustrations, not guarantees.

Simulated real balances by year
Year	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile
0	$100,000	$100,000	$100,000
1	$97,995	$115,519	$136,234
2	$105,361	$131,136	$168,270
3	$114,988	$150,415	$196,707
4	$123,369	$166,968	$227,970
5	$133,752	$187,225	$260,275
6	$145,713	$205,954	$297,502
7	$155,639	$227,035	$338,502
8	$165,769	$248,875	$375,375
9	$177,778	$267,684	$422,442
10	$189,707	$289,582	$466,504
11	$205,286	$314,530	$507,984
12	$215,101	$336,912	$561,202
13	$228,244	$362,127	$608,232
14	$238,828	$396,743	$665,026
15	$254,700	$420,325	$738,914
16	$274,345	$454,394	$794,433
17	$283,676	$485,610	$850,830
18	$305,083	$512,772	$922,019
19	$320,679	$549,992	$988,712
20	$325,896	$591,360	$1,074,802
21	$280,463	$558,927	$1,092,077
22	$243,545	$530,512	$1,090,230
23	$194,275	$502,218	$1,095,205
24	$149,479	$464,104	$1,116,900
25	$104,582	$434,410	$1,125,962
26	$58,340	$395,299	$1,124,260
27	$12,099	$356,767	$1,152,287
28	$0	$319,301	$1,144,517
29	$0	$276,013	$1,159,052
30	$0	$242,433	$1,138,578
31	$0	$200,541	$1,152,283
32	$0	$156,341	$1,164,786
33	$0	$112,925	$1,173,198
34	$0	$67,242	$1,178,286
35	$0	$21,360	$1,216,896
36	$0	$0	$1,232,162
37	$0	$0	$1,273,797
38	$0	$0	$1,312,835
39	$0	$0	$1,313,777
40	$0	$0	$1,313,283
41	$0	$0	$1,346,988
42	$0	$0	$1,362,903
43	$0	$0	$1,399,280
44	$0	$0	$1,409,177
45	$0	$0	$1,416,582
46	$0	$0	$1,450,420
47	$0	$0	$1,433,512
48	$0	$0	$1,440,938
49	$0	$0	$1,431,535
50	$0	$0	$1,466,826
51	$0	$0	$1,510,471
52	$0	$0	$1,492,734
53	$0	$0	$1,498,421
54	$0	$0	$1,459,823
55	$0	$0	$1,504,895
56	$0	$0	$1,496,663
57	$0	$0	$1,489,815
58	$0	$0	$1,467,965
59	$0	$0	$1,552,266
60	$0	$0	$1,497,543

UNDERSTAND THE CHANGE

What moves your timeline?

Change an assumption or try a what-if to see what makes a difference.

Your next move starts with a possibility.
Try adding $500 to your monthly contribution.

A FEW POSSIBLE FUTURES

Session comparisons

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Keep a draft to revisit without replacing your main plan. Loading one doesn’t change your investments.

The FireFolio bear taking a break on a workout bench to review a training log.

A little planning between reps.
No comparisons yet. Try a what-if, give it a name, and keep it here.

How this FIRE estimate works

Divide annual retirement spending by the withdrawal rate to estimate the target portfolio.
Grow invested savings monthly using the real annual return you choose.
Add the monthly contribution at the end of each month in today’s dollars.
Report the first month the projected portfolio reaches the target, up to 50 years.

Worked example

At $40,000 of annual spending and a 4% withdrawal rate, the target is $1,000,000. Starting with $100,000 and investing $2,000 monthly at a constant 5% real return reaches that illustrative target in about 19 years.

Assumptions and boundaries

Returns are constant, after inflation, and compounded monthly.
Contributions maintain their purchasing power and arrive at month end.
The withdrawal rate is an assumption, not a promise of portfolio survival.

Important limitation: This simplified projection excludes taxes, fees, changing income, sequence-of-returns risk, and individual account rules. Test lower returns and higher spending before using it as a planning range.

Sources and review

Methodology and links reviewed September 25, 2026. This educational estimate is not financial, tax, legal, investment, or lending advice.

Frequently asked questions

When can I retire?: In this calculator, you reach financial independence when your invested portfolio can support your annual spending at your chosen withdrawal rate. Divide annual spending by the withdrawal rate to find the target, then estimate how long your savings and monthly investments take to reach it. The result is an illustration, not a guaranteed retirement date.
How does my savings rate affect early retirement?: At the same after-tax income, saving a larger share both increases your investments and reduces your spending target if you keep that lifestyle in retirement. The country comparison uses this simplified assumption; national household savings rates are context, not personal recommendations.
What does the end-of-year table show?: Each row covers 12 months from today and shows starting investments, contributions, growth or loss, ending investments, and the annual withdrawal budget at your chosen rate. Spending covered is that budget divided by annual spending. The final row completes the year the target is reached, assuming contributions continue; it does not simulate retirement withdrawals.
What is a FIRE number?: It is the invested portfolio target implied by annual spending divided by an assumed withdrawal rate.
Why use a real return?: A real return is after inflation, so the projection and spending target remain in today’s purchasing power.
Is a 4% withdrawal rate guaranteed?: No. It is a planning assumption. Taxes, fees, time horizon, asset mix, and market sequence can materially change outcomes.