In this calculator, you reach financial independence when your invested portfolio reaches your FIRE number: the amount that funds your yearly spending for the years you choose in most simulated markets. It then estimates how long your savings and monthly investments take to get there. The result is an illustration, not a guaranteed retirement date.

What is Advanced mode?

Advanced builds a year-by-year retirement spreadsheet in nominal dollars: ages, inflation, multiple contribution schedules, lump sums, post-retirement income streams, a single effective tax rate, and a printable report. It is session-only and does not replace Simple mode’s FIRE number or Monte Carlo view.

How does my savings rate affect early retirement?

At the same after-tax income, saving a larger share both increases your investments and reduces your spending target if you keep that lifestyle in retirement. The country comparison uses this simplified assumption; national household savings rates are context, not personal recommendations.

What does the end-of-year table show?

Each row covers 12 months from today and shows starting investments, contributions, growth or loss, ending investments, and the share of your FIRE number reached. The final row completes the year the target is reached, assuming contributions continue; it does not simulate retirement withdrawals.

What is a FIRE number?

It is the invested amount that funds your yearly spending, less any other income, for the retirement length you choose. The calculator shows it two ways: the amount that would last if returns were steady every year, and the larger amount that lasts in nine of ten simulated markets, which is the number it uses.

How long should the money last?

Retiring at 45 and planning to 95 is 50 years. Longer retirements need more, because the money has more years of bad luck to survive. If you are unsure, plan to a later age than you expect to reach.

Why use a real return?

A real return is after inflation, so the projection and spending target remain in today’s purchasing power.

Is the 4% rule guaranteed?

No. It is a rule of thumb drawn from historical US data over about 30 years. For longer retirements, or with lower returns, a safe starting rate is usually lower. That is why this calculator works out your number from your own spending, retirement length and returns, and reports the first-year withdrawal rate it implies. Taxes, fees, asset mix, and market sequence can still change outcomes.

Retirement Calculator

Best for a clear independence date.

YOUR NEXT CHAPTER

When Can I Retire? FIRE Calculator

Estimate when your investments could cover your spending. Try your numbers, compare savings rates, and follow your path year by year.

Example inputs · browser draft

Start with your numbers. These are illustrative starting values. Enter your invested savings, future spending, and monthly contribution to build your own plan.

Your FIRE number$1,975,573Lasts 45 years in 9 of 10 simulated markets

Estimated time to target29y 4mConstant-return illustration

Progress from your estimate5.1%

Self-reported savings · not a live balance

How your number is built

You want $48,000 a year for 45 years. All amounts are in today’s dollars.

If returns were steady every year: $1,034,344
Allowing for market ups and downs (your number): $1,975,573
The 4% rule of thumb: $1,200,000
First-year withdrawal from your number: 2.4%

Your number is enough for the money to last in 9 of 10 simulated markets. Steady returns is the optimistic case; a bad first few years is what makes the difference. The withdrawal rate is a result of your plan, not a setting.

THE LONG VIEW

See the possibility.

Illustration

Your estimated timeline is unchanged.

Current draftComparison plan

Explore a what-if

All amounts are in today’s dollars. The timeline assumes constant returns after inflation, monthly compounding, and end-of-month contributions that maintain their purchasing power. Your FIRE number allows for market ups and downs in retirement. Excludes taxes and fees. This is a planning illustration, not a forecast or guarantee.

MAKE IT YOURS

The plan behind the number.

Plan nameInvested savings

Your estimate of invested assets. Exclude your home and emergency cash.Monthly contribution

What you plan to invest each month, in today’s dollars.Yearly spending in retirement

What you want to spend each year, in today’s dollars.Years it needs to last

Retiring at 45 and planning to 95 is 50 years.Return while saving

Average yearly return after inflation, before you retire. Adjust to test different conditions.Return in retirement

Average yearly return after inflation once you start spending. Adjust to test different conditions.

Advanced options

Amount to leave behind

Optional. Money you want left at the end, in today’s dollars.Other yearly income

Optional. Social Security, a pension or rent, in today’s dollars.Other income starts after

Years of retirement before that income begins. Zero means right away.Market ups and downs

How far a typical year strays from the average. Stocks run near 15–17.

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Drafts save automatically on this browser and stay separate from your signed-in plan. No account data is used.

A LITTLE WORLD PERSPECTIVE

Household savings around the world

Saving more can bring retirement closer in two ways: you invest more and need less to support your lifestyle. Explore a country’s savings rate or choose your own.

2024 household net saving · % of disposable income

Explore a savings rate 33.3%

29y 4m

Estimated time to this scenario’s target

Monthly investment: $2,000
Annual spending: $48,000
Portfolio target: $1,975,573

Holds an implied after-tax income of $72,000 a year fixed: your annual contributions plus retirement spending. Assumes spending today and in retirement is the same and all savings are invested. Applying changes both spending and contributions in your draft.

Selected countries, 2024 historical data. Net saving deducts depreciation; these national aggregates generally include households and nonprofit institutions serving them. Pension and accounting differences mean they are context, not personal targets or predicted retirement dates for those countries. Your implied rate uses the simplified budget above, not the OECD accounting definition. Source: OECD Economic Outlook 118, December 2025 · Annex Table 28.

YOUR PATH, YEAR BY YEAR

End-of-year portfolio breakdown

Follow your contributions, investment growth, and how much of your FIRE number you have reached. All amounts are in today’s dollars.

The target is first reached in 29y 4m. The final row continues contributions and growth through the end of that year. Year 1 means the next 12 months. No retirement withdrawals are deducted.

Annual projection toward a $1,975,573 retirement target
End of year	Starting portfolio	Contributions	Growth / loss	Ending portfolio	Of your FIRE number
1	$100,000	$24,000	$5,545	$129,545	6.6%
2	$129,545	$24,000	$7,022	$160,568	8.1%
3	$160,568	$24,000	$8,574	$193,141	9.8%
4	$193,141	$24,000	$10,202	$227,343	11.5%
5	$227,343	$24,000	$11,912	$263,256	13.3%
6	$263,256	$24,000	$13,708	$300,964	15.2%
7	$300,964	$24,000	$15,593	$340,557	17.2%
8	$340,557	$24,000	$17,573	$382,130	19.3%
9	$382,130	$24,000	$19,652	$425,782	21.6%
10	$425,782	$24,000	$21,834	$471,616	23.9%
11	$471,616	$24,000	$24,126	$519,742	26.3%
12	$519,742	$24,000	$26,532	$570,274	28.9%
13	$570,274	$24,000	$29,059	$623,333	31.6%
14	$623,333	$24,000	$31,712	$679,045	34.4%
15	$679,045	$24,000	$34,497	$737,542	37.3%
16	$737,542	$24,000	$37,422	$798,964	40.4%
17	$798,964	$24,000	$40,493	$863,458	43.7%
18	$863,458	$24,000	$43,718	$931,176	47.1%
19	$931,176	$24,000	$47,104	$1,002,280	50.7%
20	$1,002,280	$24,000	$50,659	$1,076,939	54.5%
21	$1,076,939	$24,000	$54,392	$1,155,331	58.5%
22	$1,155,331	$24,000	$58,312	$1,237,643	62.6%
23	$1,237,643	$24,000	$62,427	$1,324,070	67.0%
24	$1,324,070	$24,000	$66,749	$1,414,818	71.6%
25	$1,414,818	$24,000	$71,286	$1,510,105	76.4%
26	$1,510,105	$24,000	$76,050	$1,610,155	81.5%
27	$1,610,155	$24,000	$81,053	$1,715,208	86.8%
28	$1,715,208	$24,000	$86,306	$1,825,513	92.4%
29	$1,825,513	$24,000	$91,821	$1,941,334	98.3%
30 · Target reached	$1,941,334	$24,000	$97,612	$2,062,946	100.0%

PLAN FOR UNCERTAINTY

Will your money go the distance?

2,000 simulated paths

Your plan run through changing markets: you save for 30 years, then spend $48,000 a year for 45 years from your portfolio. Change the assumptions above to test other plans.

Funded every retirement year76.2%Of paths under these assumptions

Reached FIRE number at retirement41.4%Number: $1,975,573

Median ending balance$2,723,030In today’s dollars

Your number lasts in 9 of 10 markets once you have it. Markets move while you save too, so some paths arrive at retirement short of it, which is why the odds here are lower. In real life you would keep saving until you reach it.

Shading: 10th–90th percentiles · line: median · dashed line: retirement. Percentile lines are not individual paths.

Model assumptions & yearly results

Independent lognormal annual returns, calibrated to your real returns and the market ups and downs you chose. Contributions arrive at year-end; retirement spending is withdrawn at year-start in today’s dollars, less any other income. Retirement begins when your savings first reach the FIRE number in the steady projection. Fixed random seed permits consistent comparisons. Excludes taxes, fees, changing spending and extreme events beyond this model. Model probabilities are illustrations, not guarantees.

Simulated real balances by year
Year	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile
0	$100,000	$100,000	$100,000
1	$114,641	$128,159	$144,523
2	$135,276	$157,209	$184,917
3	$156,368	$187,532	$228,056
4	$179,507	$219,727	$272,813
5	$200,898	$256,685	$323,939
6	$224,415	$291,328	$380,756
7	$249,299	$324,920	$436,490
8	$272,379	$365,062	$502,135
9	$300,556	$406,064	$557,458
10	$327,215	$449,804	$622,928
11	$354,506	$495,399	$700,521
12	$381,530	$540,679	$777,589
13	$412,111	$586,150	$852,472
14	$440,304	$635,400	$940,293
15	$472,281	$693,459	$1,033,382
16	$503,599	$751,655	$1,139,311
17	$542,641	$809,490	$1,249,753
18	$569,333	$868,344	$1,356,893
19	$609,392	$925,369	$1,482,266
20	$647,298	$994,272	$1,605,053
21	$679,269	$1,065,302	$1,715,424
22	$718,462	$1,130,458	$1,870,539
23	$746,145	$1,200,568	$2,012,256
24	$775,934	$1,271,079	$2,152,961
25	$819,448	$1,361,768	$2,348,328
26	$863,834	$1,443,813	$2,472,580
27	$902,091	$1,508,261	$2,617,947
28	$944,530	$1,624,460	$2,809,704
29	$985,563	$1,696,641	$3,046,354
30	$1,039,774	$1,788,653	$3,294,536
31	$1,013,358	$1,794,421	$3,393,118
32	$988,749	$1,791,968	$3,528,178
33	$942,997	$1,821,314	$3,680,568
34	$896,910	$1,855,044	$3,855,689
35	$870,881	$1,876,288	$3,888,580
36	$848,349	$1,914,501	$4,052,825
37	$822,899	$1,902,229	$4,202,723
38	$803,277	$1,939,623	$4,382,826
39	$759,882	$1,936,055	$4,540,115
40	$726,161	$1,944,068	$4,633,821
41	$685,552	$1,951,060	$4,771,099
42	$640,317	$1,989,983	$4,907,171
43	$605,205	$1,973,851	$5,045,407
44	$599,448	$1,950,898	$5,251,646
45	$567,207	$1,968,431	$5,460,536
46	$516,929	$1,985,984	$5,592,971
47	$481,437	$2,023,342	$5,843,688
48	$433,576	$2,031,591	$6,110,640
49	$397,275	$2,059,735	$6,358,615
50	$362,491	$2,070,065	$6,559,286
51	$318,142	$2,065,916	$6,708,949
52	$288,525	$2,132,119	$6,971,091
53	$237,222	$2,087,998	$7,235,467
54	$187,582	$2,124,170	$7,321,883
55	$138,985	$2,169,724	$7,519,506
56	$105,528	$2,221,729	$7,864,299
57	$59,995	$2,226,083	$8,361,543
58	$10,564	$2,244,168	$8,776,913
59	$0	$2,267,319	$8,928,892
60	$0	$2,267,148	$9,307,852
61	$0	$2,303,031	$9,623,866
62	$0	$2,312,398	$9,730,488
63	$0	$2,349,861	$9,965,487
64	$0	$2,361,565	$10,494,719
65	$0	$2,374,396	$10,739,754
66	$0	$2,477,948	$11,184,654
67	$0	$2,453,545	$11,803,297
68	$0	$2,502,446	$12,294,032
69	$0	$2,531,236	$12,675,522
70	$0	$2,613,732	$13,302,892
71	$0	$2,613,223	$13,547,778
72	$0	$2,594,514	$14,009,254
73	$0	$2,630,506	$14,655,775
74	$0	$2,722,102	$15,155,403
75	$0	$2,723,030	$15,899,597

UNDERSTAND THE CHANGE

What moves your timeline?

Change an assumption or try a what-if to see what makes a difference.

Your next move starts with a possibility.
Try adding $500 to your monthly contribution.

A FEW POSSIBLE FUTURES

Session comparisons

0 / 4

Keep a draft to revisit without replacing your main plan. Loading one doesn’t change your investments.

The FireFolio bear taking a break on a workout bench to review a training log.

A little planning between reps.
No comparisons yet. Try a what-if, give it a name, and keep it here.

How this FIRE estimate works

Choose Simple or Advanced. Simple answers when you might reach independence in today’s dollars. Advanced builds a nominal year-by-year plan with multiple cash flows.
In Simple: work out your FIRE number for the spending, other income, legacy, and retirement length you choose, then size it so nine of ten simulated markets last.
Grow invested savings monthly using the real return you choose while saving, and add the monthly contribution at month end in today’s dollars.
In Advanced: project each year from your current age to life expectancy with inflation, contribution schedules, lump sums, income streams, and a flat retirement tax gross-up.
Advanced reports savings at retirement, savings needed, surplus or shortfall, and the extra monthly contribution that would fund the plan, plus a printable schedule.

Worked example

At $40,000 of yearly spending for 40 years of retirement at a 4% real return, your Simple FIRE number is about $1.51 million: $823,000 if returns were steady every year, and more to survive a bad start. Starting with $100,000 and investing $2,000 monthly at a constant 5% real return while saving reaches it in about 25 years.

Assumptions and boundaries

Simple mode: returns are after inflation, so every amount is in today’s dollars. Savings compound monthly.
Simple mode: contributions maintain their purchasing power and arrive at month end. Spending is withdrawn at the start of each retirement year.
Advanced mode: amounts are nominal. Spending and estate inflate at your inflation rate; portfolio withdrawals are grossed up by a single effective tax rate.
Advanced mode: contribution schedules, lump sums, and income streams are age-keyed. Returns are constant within accumulation and retirement. Caps apply (10 of each stream type).

Important limitation: Neither mode is tax advice or a guarantee. Simple excludes taxes, fees, changing income, and account rules; its markets are random rather than historical. Advanced uses a flat tax rate and constant returns, with no brackets, Roth versus Traditional, RMDs, or fees. Advanced plans are session-only and are not saved to your account.

Sources and review

Methodology and links reviewed September 29, 2026. This educational estimate is not financial, tax, legal, investment, or lending advice.

Frequently asked questions

When can I retire?: In this calculator, you reach financial independence when your invested portfolio reaches your FIRE number: the amount that funds your yearly spending for the years you choose in most simulated markets. It then estimates how long your savings and monthly investments take to get there. The result is an illustration, not a guaranteed retirement date.
What is Advanced mode?: Advanced builds a year-by-year retirement spreadsheet in nominal dollars: ages, inflation, multiple contribution schedules, lump sums, post-retirement income streams, a single effective tax rate, and a printable report. It is session-only and does not replace Simple mode’s FIRE number or Monte Carlo view.
How does my savings rate affect early retirement?: At the same after-tax income, saving a larger share both increases your investments and reduces your spending target if you keep that lifestyle in retirement. The country comparison uses this simplified assumption; national household savings rates are context, not personal recommendations.
What does the end-of-year table show?: Each row covers 12 months from today and shows starting investments, contributions, growth or loss, ending investments, and the share of your FIRE number reached. The final row completes the year the target is reached, assuming contributions continue; it does not simulate retirement withdrawals.
What is a FIRE number?: It is the invested amount that funds your yearly spending, less any other income, for the retirement length you choose. The calculator shows it two ways: the amount that would last if returns were steady every year, and the larger amount that lasts in nine of ten simulated markets, which is the number it uses.
How long should the money last?: Retiring at 45 and planning to 95 is 50 years. Longer retirements need more, because the money has more years of bad luck to survive. If you are unsure, plan to a later age than you expect to reach.
Why use a real return?: A real return is after inflation, so the projection and spending target remain in today’s purchasing power.
Is the 4% rule guaranteed?: No. It is a rule of thumb drawn from historical US data over about 30 years. For longer retirements, or with lower returns, a safe starting rate is usually lower. That is why this calculator works out your number from your own spending, retirement length and returns, and reports the first-year withdrawal rate it implies. Taxes, fees, asset mix, and market sequence can still change outcomes.