Research · Updated
Moat Scorecard
This page rates 46 US-listed companies that may have a moat, a lasting edge that makes them hard to compete with: 9 mega caps (over $200B), 16 large caps ($10–200B), 8 mid caps ($2–10B) and 8 small caps ($300M–2B), plus 5 on a watch list. Each gets a 1–10 rating that weighs how strong and lasting its advantage is against today's price, with separate checks on financial health, price swings and how far the price has already climbed. Prices as of the Oct 23, 2026 close.
Highest rated on our scale today: ASML, MSFT and CDNS. Strong moats whose price has already jumped, so less of the good news is left to price in: Microsoft, Mastercard, Visa, Verisign.
For information and education only. This is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Ratings are produced with AI-assisted analysis and may contain errors or go out of date. FireFolio is not a registered investment adviser or a licensed financial advisor. Do your own research, or talk to a licensed professional, before you invest.
Rating by company
Highlighted bars are rated 7 or higher. Watch-list companies are left out. Hover for details.
Rating vs how far the price already climbed
Highlighted dots are rated 7+ without a "price already jumped" warning. Bigger dots swing more in price.
Full scorecard
Prices, P/E, analyst targets and the 200-day average are from the Oct 23, 2026 close; yearly swing, worst drop and the 1-year and 6-month changes use weekly closes through the week of Oct 12, 2026, so they can lag prices by about a week. Click a column to sort.
46 companies shown
| ASML | ASML | Mega | Electronic Technology | 7.7 | 9.8 | -15.6% | 9 | 6 | 7 | Fair | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Microsoft | Mega | Technology Services | 7.5 | 9.5 | -32.1% | Price already ran up a lot (up 25% in 6 months, 20% above its 200-day average) | 9 | 6 | 6 | Fair | |
| CDNS | Cadence | Large | Technology Services | 7.3 | 9.5 | -27.0% | 9 | 5 | 7 | Fair | ||
| RACE | Ferrari | Large | Consumer Durables | 7.2 | 8.8 | -24.6% | 9 | 5 | 6 | Fair | ||
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange | Large | Finance | 7.2 | 7.3 | -28.7% | 8 | 7 | 5 | Looks cheap | ||
| GOOGL | Alphabet | Mega | Technology Services | 7.2 | 9.0 | -20.2% | 7 | 7 | 8 | Looks cheap | ||
| SPGI | S&P Global | Large | Commercial Services | 7.1 | 9.3 | -26.3% | 9 | 6 | 3 | Fair | ||
| CPRT | Copart | Large · watch list | Retail Trade | 7.1 | 9.5 | -39.0% | 7 | 8 | 5 | Looks cheap | ||
| MCO | Moody's | Large | Commercial Services | 7.0 | 9.0 | -21.3% | 9 | 5 | 5 | Fair | ||
| TSM | TSMC | Mega | Electronic Technology | 7.0 | 9.8 | -13.7% | 9 | 7 | 7 | Looks cheap | ||
| VRSN | Verisign | Large | Technology Services | 7.0 | 8.8 | -18.5% | Price already ran up a lot (up 10% in 6 months, 11% above its 200-day average) | 8 | 6 | 6 | Fair | |
| NVDA | Nvidia | Mega | Electronic Technology | 7.0 | 10.0 | -17.3% | 7 | 7 | 7 | Looks cheap | ||
| UNP | Union Pacific | Large | Transportation | 6.9 | 7.5 | -11.7% | Price already ran up a lot (up 15% in 6 months, 9% above its 200-day average) | 8 | 6 | 5 | Fair | |
| SNPS | Synopsys | Large | Technology Services | 6.8 | 4.0 | -28.9% | 8 | 5 | 7 | Fair | ||
| TDG | TransDigm | Large | Electronic Technology | 6.7 | 5.5 | -25.1% | 8 | 6 | 7 | Fair | ||
| MA | Mastercard | Mega | Finance | 6.4 | 9.8 | -16.3% | Price already ran up a lot (up 19% in 6 months, 17% above its 200-day average, only 9% below the analyst target) | 9 | 4 | 3 | Looks pricey | |
| V | Visa | Mega | Finance | 6.4 | 9.8 | -16.8% | Price already ran up a lot (up 27% in 6 months, 20% above its 200-day average, only 5% below the analyst target) | 9 | 4 | 3 | Looks pricey | |
| PLOW | Douglas Dynamics | Small | Producer Manufacturing | 6.4 | 5.5 | -27.4% | 6 | 7 | 6 | Looks cheap | ||
| MSCI | MSCI | Large | Commercial Services | 6.2 | 7.5 | -15.0% | 8 | 5 | 3 | Fair | ||
| MORN | Morningstar | Mid | Commercial Services | 6.1 | 7.8 | -30.0% | Price already ran up a lot (up 12% in 6 months, 21% above its 200-day average) | 7 | 6 | 3 | Fair | |
| TRU | TransUnion | Large | Commercial Services | 6.1 | 5.3 | -27.8% | 7 | 6 | 3 | Fair | ||
| IRMD | IRadimed | Small | Health Technology | 6.0 | 9.3 | -20.7% | 7 | 4 | 7 | Looks pricey | ||
| USLM | US Lime & Minerals | Mid | Non-Energy Minerals | 6.0 | 9.8 | -27.5% | 7 | 5 | 5 | Fair | ||
| MCRI | Monarch Casino | Mid | Consumer Services | 6.0 | 8.8 | -15.2% | 5 | 7 | 7 | Looks cheap | ||
| LIN | Linde | Mega | Process Industries | 5.9 | 7.5 | -15.7% | 8 | 4 | 3 | Looks pricey | ||
| DLB | Dolby | Mid | Technology Services | 5.9 | 9.0 | -28.6% | 6 | 6 | 5 | Fair | ||
| LMAT | LeMaitre Vascular | Small | Health Technology | 5.9 | 9.3 | -31.1% | 6 | 6 | 5 | Fair | ||
| SSD | Simpson Mfg | Mid | Producer Manufacturing | 5.9 | 8.0 | -20.3% | 6 | 6 | 5 | Fair | ||
| CME | CME Group | Large | Finance | 5.7 | 10.0 | -30.9% | Little room to analyst target (only 4% upside) | 8 | 4 | 2 | Looks pricey | |
| EFX | Equifax | Large | Commercial Services | 5.7 | 5.8 | -40.2% | 7 | 5 | 3 | Fair | ||
| ODC | Oil-Dri | Small | Process Industries | 5.7 | 7.5 | -27.9% | 5 | 6 | 7 | Fair | ||
| WINA | Winmark | Small | Retail Trade | 5.7 | 9.5 | -38.2% | 5 | 6 | 7 | Fair | ||
| ISRG | Intuitive Surgical | Large | Health Technology | 5.5 | 9.0 | -42.5% | 8 | 3 | 3 | Looks pricey | ||
| ROL | Rollins | Large · watch list | Commercial Services | 5.5 | 7.8 | -53.6% | 6 | 5 | 5 | Fair | ||
| FICO | Fair Isaac | Large · watch list | Commercial Services | 5.5 | 7.5 | -64.1% | 5 | 6 | 6 | Fair | ||
| ITRN | Ituran | Small | Communications | 5.5 | 8.5 | -25.1% | 5 | 7 | 7 | Looks cheap | Thin volume | |
| WM | Waste Management | Large | Industrial Services | 5.4 | 5.5 | -16.9% | 8 | 3 | 2 | Looks pricey | ||
| COST | Costco | Mega | Retail Trade | 5.2 | 6.8 | -14.5% | 8 | 2 | 3 | Looks pricey | ||
| WDFC | WD-40 | Mid | Process Industries | 5.2 | 7.8 | -28.5% | 6 | 4 | 5 | Looks pricey | ||
| NSSC | Napco Security | Small | Commercial Services | 5.1 | 9.5 | -25.1% | 5 | 6 | 3 | Fair | ||
| PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Small | Producer Manufacturing | 5.1 | 7.0 | -24.4% | 5 | 4 | 8 | Looks pricey | ||
| MTN | Vail Resorts | Mid · watch list | Consumer Services | 5.0 | 3.5 | -26.4% | Little room to analyst target (only 1% upside) | 6 | 3 | 6 | Looks pricey | |
| CTAS | Cintas | Large | Commercial Services | 4.5 | 8.0 | -18.6% | Price already ran up a lot (up 19% in 6 months, 18% above its 200-day average, 2% above the analyst target) | 7 | 2 | 2 | Looks pricey | |
| EXPO | Exponent | Mid | Industrial Services | 4.4 | 8.8 | -32.6% | Price already ran up a lot (up 6% in 6 months, 17% above its 200-day average) | 6 | 3 | 2 | Looks pricey | |
| SPCX | SpaceX | Mega · watch list | Communications | 3.6 | 3.3 | -41.5% | Big price swings (moves about 70% a year) | 8 | 2 | 6 | Looks pricey | Short history (19 weeks of trading) |
| CRVL | CorVel | Mid | Finance | 3.5 | 7.8 | -35.9% | Price already ran up a lot (up 42% in 6 months, 35% above its 200-day average) | 5 | 2 | 2 | Looks pricey |
Why these are on the watch list
Companies with a real advantage that something recent has put in question. They are rated like the rest but kept apart until the picture clears.
Copart (CPRT), rating 7.1, health 9.5: Still the dominant salvage-auction network, but car volumes from insurers have fallen, the founder returned as CEO in a surprise change in June, and the stock is about 35% below its high. On watch to see whether the volume drop is temporary or a lasting shift.
Fair Isaac (FICO), rating 5.5, health 7.5: Its moat came from being the credit score regulators required for mortgages. Regulators are now letting a rival score compete and pressure its pricing, so the moat may be shrinking. On watch until it's clear how much pricing power survives.
Rollins (ROL), rating 5.5, health 7.8: Still the leader in pest control, but the stock fell about half from its high after weak home-service demand, an FTC order voiding its employee non-compete agreements, and concern that AI search is cutting into its customer leads. On watch to see whether the moat or just the price took the hit.
SpaceX (SPCX), rating 3.6, health 3.3: Its rocket-launch and Starlink businesses have a strong moat, but the company as a whole is losing billions a year (much of it from its AI unit), has traded for under five months, and one person controls most of the votes. On watch until it shows a path to profit and a longer trading record.
Vail Resorts (MTN), rating 5.0, health 3.5: Owns ski mountains no one can replicate, but pass sales and earnings are falling, debt is about four years of earnings, and its 6% dividend may be hard to keep paying. On watch until demand and finances steady.
How the ratings work
A moat is what makes a company hard to compete with: a network everyone already uses, customers who can't easily switch, permits or licenses others can't get, or costs no rival can match. This page asks two questions: how strong and lasting is that advantage, and how much are you paying for it today?
Rating (1–10)
Half of it is the moat score, a third is the value score (whether today's price looks reasonable for the quality), and the rest is the entry score (higher when the stock has recently sold off). Points come off for specific risks: SpaceX −2 (losing money, a single person controls most votes), TSMC −1 (Taiwan political risk), TransDigm and Ituran −0.5 (heavy debt; Israel and Latin America political and currency risk). Moat and value scores are judgment calls made with AI-assisted analysis and reviewed by FireFolio; the value score also looks at the average analyst price target, which the run-up check uses too.
Financial health (1–10)
Can the company pay its bills and fund itself without outside help? It averages four checks from the latest full fiscal year:
- Debt load: years of yearly operating cash earnings (profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) needed to pay off debt after subtracting cash. More cash than debt scores 10; four years or more scores 1. Lease obligations are left out.
- Interest cushion: how many times this year's operating profit covers the interest owed. No debt, or more cash than debt, scores 10; 20 times or more scores 10; under 1.5 times or losing money scores 1. If a company has debt but doesn't report its interest, this check is left out.
- Spare cash: cash left after running the business and paying for equipment, as a share of sales. 30% or more scores 10; burning cash scores 1. If a company hasn't reported its cash flow but spends more than half its sales on equipment, this scores 1.
- Profit cushion: operating profit as a share of sales. 40% or more scores 10; losing money scores 1.
Labels: Very healthy 8+, Healthy 6–8, Watch 4–6, Strained under 4. This measures debt, cash and margins, not how steady the business is. Steady, utility-like companies such as Waste Management and Union Pacific can safely carry more debt than this score likes, and a tiny company with no debt can still be fragile. Low-margin, high-volume businesses like Costco score lower on the profit cushion than their real safety deserves, and exchanges (CME, ICE) are measured on their own cash only, not the customer money they hold.
Warnings
- Price already ran up a lot: among the quarter of this list whose price has climbed most, and up 15%+ in six months or 10%+ above its average price over the past 200 trading days. Good news may already be in the price. The numbers are shown with each warning.
- Little room to analyst target: the price is within 5% of, or above, the average analyst price target.
- Big price swings: the price typically moves 65% or more in a year.
Other columns
- Typical yearly swing: how much the price usually moves in a year, from weekly closes over the past year (the 1–10 volatility score uses fixed steps: under 15% = 1, up to over 80% = 10).
- Worst drop from a peak: the largest fall from a high during the past year.
- Price run-up (1–10): how far the price has already climbed compared with the rest of this list, from its 6-month change, its distance above the 200-day average, and how close it is to the analyst target. 10 = climbed the most.
- Recent momentum: a 0–100 gauge of the last few weeks' buying and selling (RSI). "Sold off" under 40, "Stretched" over 60.
- Sector and industry: Robinhood's classification.
Who's included
Only stocks listed on the NYSE or Nasdaq, available at most US brokers. Size groups by market value: mega over $200B, large $10–200B, mid $2–10B, small $300M–2B. The small caps were found with independent AI-generated shortlists and then checked against company filings; their evidence is mostly the past year's margins. Market data comes from Robinhood; financial figures come from SEC filings or, where those weren't available in structured form, stockanalysis.com (each company's source is listed in the Financial health view). TSMC, ASML and Ferrari figures were converted to dollars, and Ferrari's debt excludes the loans that fund its customers' car financing. Analyst targets can be weeks old.