In this calculator, you reach financial independence when your invested portfolio can support your annual spending at your chosen withdrawal rate. Divide annual spending by the withdrawal rate to find the target, then estimate how long your savings and monthly investments take to reach it. The result is an illustration, not a guaranteed retirement date.

How does my savings rate affect early retirement?

At the same after-tax income, saving a larger share both increases your investments and reduces your spending target if you keep that lifestyle in retirement. The country comparison uses this simplified assumption; national household savings rates are context, not personal recommendations.

What does the end-of-year table show?

Each row covers 12 months from today and shows starting investments, contributions, growth or loss, ending investments, and the annual withdrawal budget at your chosen rate. Spending covered is that budget divided by annual spending. The final row completes the year the target is reached, assuming contributions continue; it does not simulate retirement withdrawals.

What is a FIRE number?

It is the invested portfolio target implied by annual spending divided by an assumed withdrawal rate.

Why use a real return?

A real return is after inflation, so the projection and spending target remain in today’s purchasing power.

Is a 4% withdrawal rate guaranteed?

No. It is a planning assumption. Taxes, fees, time horizon, asset mix, and market sequence can materially change outcomes.

YOUR NEXT CHAPTER

When Can I Retire? FIRE Calculator

Estimate when your investments could cover your spending. Try your numbers, compare savings rates, and follow your path year by year.

Example inputs · session only

Start with your numbers. These are illustrative starting values. Enter your invested savings, future spending, and monthly contribution to build your own plan.

Your FIRE number$2,400,000Annual spending ÷ withdrawal rate

Estimated time to target18yConstant-return illustration

Progress from your estimate41.7%

Self-reported savings · not a live balance

THE LONG VIEW

See the possibility.

Illustration

Your estimated timeline is unchanged.

Current draftComparison plan

Explore a what-if

All amounts are in today’s dollars. Assumes constant returns after inflation, monthly compounding, and end-of-month contributions that maintain their purchasing power. Excludes taxes, fees, and market volatility. This is a planning illustration, not a forecast or guarantee.

MAKE IT YOURS

The plan behind the number.

Values on this page are temporary and won’t transfer through sign-in. No account data is used.

A LITTLE WORLD PERSPECTIVE

Household savings around the world

Saving more can bring retirement closer in two ways: you invest more and need less to support your lifestyle. Explore a country’s savings rate or choose your own.

2024 household net saving · % of disposable income

Explore a savings rate 0.0%

18y

Estimated time to this scenario’s target

Monthly investment: $0
Annual spending: $96,000
Portfolio target: $2,400,000

Holds an implied after-tax income of $96,000 a year fixed: your annual contributions plus retirement spending. Assumes spending today and in retirement is the same and all savings are invested. Applying changes both spending and contributions in your draft.

Selected countries, 2024 historical data. Net saving deducts depreciation; these national aggregates generally include households and nonprofit institutions serving them. Pension and accounting differences mean they are context, not personal targets or predicted retirement dates for those countries. Your implied rate uses the simplified budget above, not the OECD accounting definition. Source: OECD Economic Outlook 118, December 2025 · Annex Table 28.

YOUR PATH, YEAR BY YEAR

End-of-year portfolio breakdown

Follow your contributions, investment growth, and the spending your portfolio could support at your chosen withdrawal rate. All amounts are in today’s dollars.

The target is first reached in 18y. The final row continues contributions and growth through the end of that year. Year 1 means the next 12 months. No retirement withdrawals are deducted.

Annual projection toward a $2,400,000 retirement target
End of year	Starting portfolio	Contributions	Growth / loss	Ending portfolio	Annual withdrawal budget	Spending covered
1	$1,000,000	$0	$50,000	$1,050,000	$42,000	43.8%
2	$1,050,000	$0	$52,500	$1,102,500	$44,100	45.9%
3	$1,102,500	$0	$55,125	$1,157,625	$46,305	48.2%
4	$1,157,625	$0	$57,881	$1,215,506	$48,620	50.6%
5	$1,215,506	$0	$60,775	$1,276,282	$51,051	53.2%
6	$1,276,282	$0	$63,814	$1,340,096	$53,604	55.8%
7	$1,340,096	$0	$67,005	$1,407,100	$56,284	58.6%
8	$1,407,100	$0	$70,355	$1,477,455	$59,098	61.6%
9	$1,477,455	$0	$73,873	$1,551,328	$62,053	64.6%
10	$1,551,328	$0	$77,566	$1,628,895	$65,156	67.9%
11	$1,628,895	$0	$81,445	$1,710,339	$68,414	71.3%
12	$1,710,339	$0	$85,517	$1,795,856	$71,834	74.8%
13	$1,795,856	$0	$89,793	$1,885,649	$75,426	78.6%
14	$1,885,649	$0	$94,282	$1,979,932	$79,197	82.5%
15	$1,979,932	$0	$98,997	$2,078,928	$83,157	86.6%
16	$2,078,928	$0	$103,946	$2,182,875	$87,315	91.0%
17	$2,182,875	$0	$109,144	$2,292,018	$91,681	95.5%
18 · Target reached	$2,292,018	$0	$114,601	$2,406,619	$96,265	100.3%

PLAN FOR UNCERTAINTY

Will your money go the distance?

2,000 simulated paths

Test your current draft through changing markets. Contributions stop at retirement; spending then comes from your portfolio.

Years until retirementYears in retirementAnnual volatility (%)Custom FIRE target ($, optional)

Funded every retirement year51.8%Of paths under these assumptions

Reached FIRE target at retirement44.3%Target: $2,400,000

Median ending balance$234,988In today’s dollars

Shading: 10th–90th percentiles · line: median · dashed line: retirement. Percentile lines are not individual paths.

Model assumptions & yearly results

Independent lognormal annual returns, calibrated to your real annual return and volatility. Contributions arrive at year-end; retirement spending is withdrawn at year-start in today’s dollars. The target measures readiness, not an automatic retirement trigger. Fixed random seed permits consistent comparisons. Excludes taxes, fees, pensions, changing spending and extreme events beyond this model. Model probabilities are illustrations, not guarantees.

Simulated real balances by year
Year	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile
0	$1,000,000	$1,000,000	$1,000,000
1	$859,952	$1,035,190	$1,242,339
2	$821,879	$1,066,990	$1,418,436
3	$812,090	$1,128,159	$1,542,982
4	$791,350	$1,154,652	$1,690,804
5	$784,188	$1,211,255	$1,821,812
6	$796,750	$1,257,031	$1,990,201
7	$786,108	$1,311,187	$2,156,626
8	$786,725	$1,353,205	$2,318,795
9	$801,336	$1,399,835	$2,509,433
10	$803,202	$1,463,617	$2,679,999
11	$829,153	$1,512,833	$2,855,026
12	$825,560	$1,556,508	$3,053,722
13	$836,927	$1,623,911	$3,200,460
14	$847,808	$1,709,977	$3,411,832
15	$868,837	$1,758,659	$3,648,949
16	$906,912	$1,855,940	$3,880,726
17	$901,980	$1,927,491	$4,108,649
18	$918,301	$1,994,512	$4,292,360
19	$956,453	$2,068,010	$4,542,717
20	$950,195	$2,175,276	$4,830,484
21	$869,318	$2,172,690	$4,972,335
22	$776,470	$2,138,103	$5,131,488
23	$691,763	$2,143,163	$5,288,714
24	$619,987	$2,131,003	$5,468,422
25	$530,028	$2,143,352	$5,749,768
26	$445,810	$2,043,874	$6,052,160
27	$353,626	$2,026,558	$6,451,509
28	$261,937	$1,977,861	$6,251,313
29	$176,537	$1,958,376	$6,491,129
30	$83,982	$1,898,970	$6,686,779
31	$0	$1,920,389	$6,943,334
32	$0	$1,915,866	$7,271,868
33	$0	$1,846,209	$7,625,469
34	$0	$1,784,603	$8,141,986
35	$0	$1,755,338	$8,446,943
36	$0	$1,734,336	$8,774,609
37	$0	$1,655,545	$9,260,956
38	$0	$1,665,694	$9,794,924
39	$0	$1,637,583	$10,143,909
40	$0	$1,554,606	$10,863,601
41	$0	$1,533,665	$11,100,732
42	$0	$1,475,681	$11,804,459
43	$0	$1,413,772	$11,847,516
44	$0	$1,402,815	$12,794,818
45	$0	$1,345,627	$13,223,362
46	$0	$1,259,296	$13,515,609
47	$0	$1,204,173	$13,790,391
48	$0	$1,165,264	$14,614,482
49	$0	$1,103,997	$15,484,587
50	$0	$1,028,192	$16,057,408
51	$0	$946,986	$17,007,650
52	$0	$862,842	$17,678,373
53	$0	$835,005	$18,323,263
54	$0	$735,255	$18,717,807
55	$0	$654,753	$19,406,730
56	$0	$553,617	$20,690,671
57	$0	$507,289	$21,018,919
58	$0	$431,988	$22,238,362
59	$0	$329,164	$22,208,809
60	$0	$234,988	$23,897,970

UNDERSTAND THE CHANGE

What moves your timeline?

Change an assumption or try a what-if to see what makes a difference.

Your next move starts with a possibility.
Try adding $500 to your monthly contribution.

A FEW POSSIBLE FUTURES

Session comparisons

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Keep a draft to revisit without replacing your main plan. Loading one doesn’t change your investments.

The FireFolio bear taking a break on a workout bench to review a training log.

A little planning between reps.
No comparisons yet. Try a what-if, give it a name, and keep it here.

How this FIRE estimate works

Divide annual retirement spending by the withdrawal rate to estimate the target portfolio.
Grow invested savings monthly using the real annual return you choose.
Add the monthly contribution at the end of each month in today’s dollars.
Report the first month the projected portfolio reaches the target, up to 50 years.

Worked example

At $40,000 of annual spending and a 4% withdrawal rate, the target is $1,000,000. Starting with $100,000 and investing $2,000 monthly at a constant 5% real return reaches that illustrative target in about 19 years.

Assumptions and boundaries

Returns are constant, after inflation, and compounded monthly.
Contributions maintain their purchasing power and arrive at month end.
The withdrawal rate is an assumption, not a promise of portfolio survival.

Important limitation: This simplified projection excludes taxes, fees, changing income, sequence-of-returns risk, and individual account rules. Test lower returns and higher spending before using it as a planning range.

Sources and review

Methodology and links reviewed September 25, 2026. This educational estimate is not financial, tax, legal, investment, or lending advice.

Frequently asked questions

When can I retire?: In this calculator, you reach financial independence when your invested portfolio can support your annual spending at your chosen withdrawal rate. Divide annual spending by the withdrawal rate to find the target, then estimate how long your savings and monthly investments take to reach it. The result is an illustration, not a guaranteed retirement date.
How does my savings rate affect early retirement?: At the same after-tax income, saving a larger share both increases your investments and reduces your spending target if you keep that lifestyle in retirement. The country comparison uses this simplified assumption; national household savings rates are context, not personal recommendations.
What does the end-of-year table show?: Each row covers 12 months from today and shows starting investments, contributions, growth or loss, ending investments, and the annual withdrawal budget at your chosen rate. Spending covered is that budget divided by annual spending. The final row completes the year the target is reached, assuming contributions continue; it does not simulate retirement withdrawals.
What is a FIRE number?: It is the invested portfolio target implied by annual spending divided by an assumed withdrawal rate.
Why use a real return?: A real return is after inflation, so the projection and spending target remain in today’s purchasing power.
Is a 4% withdrawal rate guaranteed?: No. It is a planning assumption. Taxes, fees, time horizon, asset mix, and market sequence can materially change outcomes.