In this calculator, you reach financial independence when your invested portfolio reaches your FIRE number: the amount that funds your yearly spending for the years you choose in most simulated markets. It then estimates how long your savings and monthly investments take to get there. The result is an illustration, not a guaranteed retirement date.

What is Advanced mode?

Advanced builds a year-by-year retirement spreadsheet in nominal dollars: ages, inflation, multiple contribution schedules, lump sums, post-retirement income streams, a single effective tax rate, and a printable report. It is session-only and does not replace Simple mode’s FIRE number or Monte Carlo view.

How does my savings rate affect early retirement?

At the same after-tax income, saving a larger share both increases your investments and reduces your spending target if you keep that lifestyle in retirement. The country comparison uses this simplified assumption; national household savings rates are context, not personal recommendations.

What does the end-of-year table show?

Each row covers 12 months from today and shows starting investments, contributions, growth or loss, ending investments, and the share of your FIRE number reached. The final row completes the year the target is reached, assuming contributions continue; it does not simulate retirement withdrawals.

What is a FIRE number?

It is the invested amount that funds your yearly spending, less any other income, for the retirement length you choose. The calculator shows it two ways: the amount that would last if returns were steady every year, and the larger amount that lasts in nine of ten simulated markets, which is the number it uses.

How long should the money last?

Retiring at 45 and planning to 95 is 50 years. Longer retirements need more, because the money has more years of bad luck to survive. If you are unsure, plan to a later age than you expect to reach.

Why use a real return?

A real return is after inflation, so the projection and spending target remain in today’s purchasing power.

Is the 4% rule guaranteed?

No. It is a rule of thumb drawn from historical US data over about 30 years. For longer retirements, or with lower returns, a safe starting rate is usually lower. That is why this calculator works out your number from your own spending, retirement length and returns, and reports the first-year withdrawal rate it implies. Taxes, fees, asset mix, and market sequence can still change outcomes.

Retirement Calculator

Best for a clear independence date.

YOUR NEXT CHAPTER

When Can I Retire? FIRE Calculator

Estimate when your investments could cover your spending. Try your numbers, compare savings rates, and follow your path year by year.

Example inputs · browser draft

Start with your numbers. These are illustrative starting values. Enter your invested savings, future spending, and monthly contribution to build your own plan.

Your FIRE number$2,201,728Lasts 50 years in 9 of 10 simulated markets

Estimated time to target23y 7mConstant-return illustration

Progress from your estimate0%

Self-reported savings · not a live balance

How your number is built

You want $50,000 a year for 50 years. All amounts are in today’s dollars.

If returns were steady every year: $1,117,074
Allowing for market ups and downs (your number): $2,201,728
The 4% rule of thumb: $1,250,000
First-year withdrawal from your number: 2.3%

Your number is enough for the money to last in 9 of 10 simulated markets. Steady returns is the optimistic case; a bad first few years is what makes the difference. The withdrawal rate is a result of your plan, not a setting.

THE LONG VIEW

See the possibility.

Illustration

Your estimated timeline is unchanged.

Current draftComparison plan

Explore a what-if

All amounts are in today’s dollars. The timeline assumes constant returns after inflation, monthly compounding, and end-of-month contributions that maintain their purchasing power. Your FIRE number allows for market ups and downs in retirement. Excludes taxes and fees. This is a planning illustration, not a forecast or guarantee.

MAKE IT YOURS

The plan behind the number.

Plan nameInvested savings

Your estimate of invested assets. Exclude your home and emergency cash.Monthly contribution

What you plan to invest each month, in today’s dollars.Yearly spending in retirement

What you want to spend each year, in today’s dollars.Years it needs to last

Retiring at 45 and planning to 95 is 50 years.Return while saving

Average yearly return after inflation, before you retire. Adjust to test different conditions.Return in retirement

Average yearly return after inflation once you start spending. Adjust to test different conditions.

Advanced options

Amount to leave behind

Optional. Money you want left at the end, in today’s dollars.Other yearly income

Optional. Social Security, a pension or rent, in today’s dollars.Other income starts after

Years of retirement before that income begins. Zero means right away.Market ups and downs

How far a typical year strays from the average. Stocks run near 15–17.

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Drafts save automatically on this browser and stay separate from your signed-in plan. No account data is used.

A LITTLE WORLD PERSPECTIVE

Household savings around the world

Saving more can bring retirement closer in two ways: you invest more and need less to support your lifestyle. Explore a country’s savings rate or choose your own.

2024 household net saving · % of disposable income

Explore a savings rate 50.0%

23y 7m

Estimated time to this scenario’s target

Monthly investment: $4,167
Annual spending: $50,000
Portfolio target: $2,201,728

Holds an implied after-tax income of $100,004 a year fixed: your annual contributions plus retirement spending. Assumes spending today and in retirement is the same and all savings are invested. Applying changes both spending and contributions in your draft.

Selected countries, 2024 historical data. Net saving deducts depreciation; these national aggregates generally include households and nonprofit institutions serving them. Pension and accounting differences mean they are context, not personal targets or predicted retirement dates for those countries. Your implied rate uses the simplified budget above, not the OECD accounting definition. Source: OECD Economic Outlook 118, December 2025 · Annex Table 28.

YOUR PATH, YEAR BY YEAR

End-of-year portfolio breakdown

Follow your contributions, investment growth, and how much of your FIRE number you have reached. All amounts are in today’s dollars.

The target is first reached in 23y 7m. The final row continues contributions and growth through the end of that year. Year 1 means the next 12 months. No retirement withdrawals are deducted.

Annual projection toward a $2,201,728 retirement target
End of year	Starting portfolio	Contributions	Growth / loss	Ending portfolio	Of your FIRE number
1	$0	$50,004	$1,136	$51,140	2.3%
2	$51,140	$50,004	$3,693	$104,837	4.8%
3	$104,837	$50,004	$6,378	$161,218	7.3%
4	$161,218	$50,004	$9,197	$220,419	10.0%
5	$220,419	$50,004	$12,157	$282,580	12.8%
6	$282,580	$50,004	$15,265	$347,849	15.8%
7	$347,849	$50,004	$18,528	$416,381	18.9%
8	$416,381	$50,004	$21,955	$488,340	22.2%
9	$488,340	$50,004	$25,553	$563,897	25.6%
10	$563,897	$50,004	$29,331	$643,231	29.2%
11	$643,231	$50,004	$33,297	$726,533	33.0%
12	$726,533	$50,004	$37,462	$813,999	37.0%
13	$813,999	$50,004	$41,836	$905,839	41.1%
14	$905,839	$50,004	$46,428	$1,002,271	45.5%
15	$1,002,271	$50,004	$51,249	$1,103,524	50.1%
16	$1,103,524	$50,004	$56,312	$1,209,840	54.9%
17	$1,209,840	$50,004	$61,628	$1,321,472	60.0%
18	$1,321,472	$50,004	$67,209	$1,438,685	65.3%
19	$1,438,685	$50,004	$73,070	$1,561,759	70.9%
20	$1,561,759	$50,004	$79,224	$1,690,987	76.8%
21	$1,690,987	$50,004	$85,685	$1,826,676	83.0%
22	$1,826,676	$50,004	$92,470	$1,969,150	89.4%
23	$1,969,150	$50,004	$99,593	$2,118,747	96.2%
24 · Target reached	$2,118,747	$50,004	$107,073	$2,275,825	100.0%

PLAN FOR UNCERTAINTY

Will your money go the distance?

2,000 simulated paths

Your plan run through changing markets: you save for 24 years, then spend $50,000 a year for 50 years from your portfolio. Change the assumptions above to test other plans.

Funded every retirement year81.5%Of paths under these assumptions

Reached FIRE number at retirement42.1%Number: $2,201,728

Median ending balance$3,989,823In today’s dollars

Your number lasts in 9 of 10 markets once you have it. Markets move while you save too, so some paths arrive at retirement short of it, which is why the odds here are lower. In real life you would keep saving until you reach it.

Shading: 10th–90th percentiles · line: median · dashed line: retirement. Percentile lines are not individual paths.

Model assumptions & yearly results

Independent lognormal annual returns, calibrated to your real returns and the market ups and downs you chose. Contributions arrive at year-end; retirement spending is withdrawn at year-start in today’s dollars, less any other income. Retirement begins when your savings first reach the FIRE number in the steady projection. Fixed random seed permits consistent comparisons. Excludes taxes, fees, changing spending and extreme events beyond this model. Model probabilities are illustrations, not guarantees.

Simulated real balances by year
Year	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile
0	$0	$0	$0
1	$50,004	$50,004	$50,004
2	$95,051	$102,368	$110,248
3	$140,493	$157,145	$176,626
4	$186,520	$214,046	$247,768
5	$231,963	$273,623	$323,415
6	$277,692	$337,409	$406,775
7	$328,104	$399,976	$497,947
8	$375,339	$467,393	$586,128
9	$419,452	$538,906	$689,039
10	$474,835	$614,130	$800,623
11	$526,469	$691,594	$919,423
12	$584,180	$770,274	$1,039,597
13	$636,897	$852,986	$1,159,211
14	$686,456	$926,572	$1,305,430
15	$737,672	$1,036,307	$1,443,696
16	$799,546	$1,125,199	$1,600,504
17	$867,462	$1,231,761	$1,758,434
18	$917,255	$1,338,942	$1,951,243
19	$986,377	$1,438,072	$2,185,883
20	$1,061,817	$1,562,002	$2,379,904
21	$1,129,445	$1,667,705	$2,607,721
22	$1,204,516	$1,788,775	$2,819,393
23	$1,269,120	$1,905,932	$3,004,097
24	$1,358,640	$2,055,042	$3,276,739
25	$1,303,725	$2,069,942	$3,386,363
26	$1,278,574	$2,070,554	$3,546,294
27	$1,212,758	$2,113,857	$3,635,237
28	$1,186,286	$2,132,745	$3,853,043
29	$1,159,237	$2,151,284	$3,951,667
30	$1,121,769	$2,190,872	$4,099,869
31	$1,087,169	$2,200,972	$4,260,756
32	$1,041,233	$2,208,067	$4,477,495
33	$1,010,765	$2,257,522	$4,671,592
34	$983,035	$2,277,670	$4,849,050
35	$958,871	$2,303,502	$5,015,630
36	$924,159	$2,342,324	$5,237,765
37	$879,026	$2,377,673	$5,431,462
38	$847,029	$2,410,356	$5,674,880
39	$824,804	$2,399,963	$5,818,482
40	$803,424	$2,450,560	$6,101,527
41	$759,832	$2,523,768	$6,298,555
42	$716,667	$2,531,658	$6,552,747
43	$714,261	$2,567,188	$6,974,742
44	$667,659	$2,611,604	$7,218,010
45	$637,424	$2,690,584	$7,551,027
46	$597,550	$2,690,064	$7,552,560
47	$552,830	$2,719,497	$7,908,286
48	$517,196	$2,728,031	$8,377,303
49	$482,421	$2,771,791	$8,567,735
50	$450,928	$2,794,760	$9,042,805
51	$413,875	$2,805,267	$9,466,374
52	$376,088	$2,845,107	$9,771,005
53	$343,169	$2,922,044	$9,739,264
54	$283,640	$2,979,486	$10,239,035
55	$231,845	$2,992,716	$10,684,235
56	$182,662	$3,006,866	$11,051,849
57	$139,390	$3,039,686	$11,412,211
58	$90,968	$3,033,060	$11,925,477
59	$44,989	$3,132,866	$12,292,657
60	$0	$3,121,686	$12,742,708
61	$0	$3,111,237	$13,135,919
62	$0	$3,114,057	$13,775,093
63	$0	$3,134,734	$14,356,917
64	$0	$3,199,239	$14,647,729
65	$0	$3,285,193	$15,382,803
66	$0	$3,374,990	$16,144,804
67	$0	$3,390,907	$16,524,744
68	$0	$3,503,781	$16,796,969
69	$0	$3,587,990	$17,432,368
70	$0	$3,691,137	$19,015,636
71	$0	$3,684,309	$19,329,475
72	$0	$3,771,221	$20,176,318
73	$0	$3,932,708	$21,273,512
74	$0	$3,989,823	$21,767,956

UNDERSTAND THE CHANGE

What moves your timeline?

Change an assumption or try a what-if to see what makes a difference.

Your next move starts with a possibility.
Try adding $500 to your monthly contribution.

A FEW POSSIBLE FUTURES

Session comparisons

0 / 4

Keep a draft to revisit without replacing your main plan. Loading one doesn’t change your investments.

The FireFolio bear taking a break on a workout bench to review a training log.

A little planning between reps.
No comparisons yet. Try a what-if, give it a name, and keep it here.

How this FIRE estimate works

Choose Simple or Advanced. Simple answers when you might reach independence in today’s dollars. Advanced builds a nominal year-by-year plan with multiple cash flows.
In Simple: work out your FIRE number for the spending, other income, legacy, and retirement length you choose, then size it so nine of ten simulated markets last.
Grow invested savings monthly using the real return you choose while saving, and add the monthly contribution at month end in today’s dollars.
In Advanced: project each year from your current age to life expectancy with inflation, contribution schedules, lump sums, income streams, and a flat retirement tax gross-up.
Advanced reports savings at retirement, savings needed, surplus or shortfall, and the extra monthly contribution that would fund the plan, plus a printable schedule.

Worked example

At $40,000 of yearly spending for 40 years of retirement at a 4% real return, your Simple FIRE number is about $1.51 million: $823,000 if returns were steady every year, and more to survive a bad start. Starting with $100,000 and investing $2,000 monthly at a constant 5% real return while saving reaches it in about 25 years.

Assumptions and boundaries

Simple mode: returns are after inflation, so every amount is in today’s dollars. Savings compound monthly.
Simple mode: contributions maintain their purchasing power and arrive at month end. Spending is withdrawn at the start of each retirement year.
Advanced mode: amounts are nominal. Spending and estate inflate at your inflation rate; portfolio withdrawals are grossed up by a single effective tax rate.
Advanced mode: contribution schedules, lump sums, and income streams are age-keyed. Returns are constant within accumulation and retirement. Caps apply (10 of each stream type).

Important limitation: Neither mode is tax advice or a guarantee. Simple excludes taxes, fees, changing income, and account rules; its markets are random rather than historical. Advanced uses a flat tax rate and constant returns, with no brackets, Roth versus Traditional, RMDs, or fees. Advanced plans are session-only and are not saved to your account.

Sources and review

Methodology and links reviewed September 29, 2026. This educational estimate is not financial, tax, legal, investment, or lending advice.

Frequently asked questions

When can I retire?: In this calculator, you reach financial independence when your invested portfolio reaches your FIRE number: the amount that funds your yearly spending for the years you choose in most simulated markets. It then estimates how long your savings and monthly investments take to get there. The result is an illustration, not a guaranteed retirement date.
What is Advanced mode?: Advanced builds a year-by-year retirement spreadsheet in nominal dollars: ages, inflation, multiple contribution schedules, lump sums, post-retirement income streams, a single effective tax rate, and a printable report. It is session-only and does not replace Simple mode’s FIRE number or Monte Carlo view.
How does my savings rate affect early retirement?: At the same after-tax income, saving a larger share both increases your investments and reduces your spending target if you keep that lifestyle in retirement. The country comparison uses this simplified assumption; national household savings rates are context, not personal recommendations.
What does the end-of-year table show?: Each row covers 12 months from today and shows starting investments, contributions, growth or loss, ending investments, and the share of your FIRE number reached. The final row completes the year the target is reached, assuming contributions continue; it does not simulate retirement withdrawals.
What is a FIRE number?: It is the invested amount that funds your yearly spending, less any other income, for the retirement length you choose. The calculator shows it two ways: the amount that would last if returns were steady every year, and the larger amount that lasts in nine of ten simulated markets, which is the number it uses.
How long should the money last?: Retiring at 45 and planning to 95 is 50 years. Longer retirements need more, because the money has more years of bad luck to survive. If you are unsure, plan to a later age than you expect to reach.
Why use a real return?: A real return is after inflation, so the projection and spending target remain in today’s purchasing power.
Is the 4% rule guaranteed?: No. It is a rule of thumb drawn from historical US data over about 30 years. For longer retirements, or with lower returns, a safe starting rate is usually lower. That is why this calculator works out your number from your own spending, retirement length and returns, and reports the first-year withdrawal rate it implies. Taxes, fees, asset mix, and market sequence can still change outcomes.