Oaktree cofounder Howard Marks writes about investment judgment and risk. His 2015 memo Risk Revisited Again argues that price fluctuations alone cannot describe the possibility of permanent loss, and explores the limits of knowing risk in advance.
Our FIRE connection: a date on a chart is an answer to a set of assumptions. A useful plan also asks what happens when those assumptions fail, when money is needed earlier, or when the household has less flexibility than expected.
Marks’s professional context includes credit investing and institutional capital. His risk framework does not provide a personal withdrawal rate or predict the next downturn. Use it to challenge confidence, not to turn uncertainty into a new forecast.
Howard Marks, June 8, 2015. Start with “What Risk Really Means.”
A short-term market pattern meets a decades-long financial plan. Explore post-earnings drift through seven investing perspectives, from patient ownership to active trading.
Read the field noteA smooth chart answers a narrow question. A resilient plan asks a few more.
Read the field noteAn independent reading guide by FireFolio, published September 20, 2026. These are our FIRE connections, not a claim that the writer supports every idea in the movement. No affiliation or endorsement. Educational material, not individualized investment advice.
